Duke almost never loses at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Over the last ten completed seasons, 2016-17 through 2025-26, the Blue Devils went 146-17 at home. Betting them there has been a different story. As a home favorite, Duke covered the spread about 52 to 53 percent of the time over that stretch, depending on whose closing lines you use. That is barely better than a coin toss for a team that wins nine of every ten home games.
We pulled every closing line from two independent odds archives, TeamRankings and Covers, and checked the venue and final score of each game against Sports-Reference. Where the two archives disagree by a half point, we give both numbers. A quick primer for readers who don’t bet. The spread is the number of points the oddsmakers expect Duke to win by. Duke “covers” when it wins by more than that number, and the closing line is the final spread just before tip-off. A team can win every home game and still lose money for anyone who backed it, if it keeps winning by less than the number. That gap is what the rest of this piece measures.
The bigger the spread, the better Duke has done
You would expect the huge numbers to be the trap. They haven’t been. When Duke was favored by 15 points or more at Cameron, it covered about 56 percent of the time over the ten seasons (55-43-3 on TeamRankings lines, 53-41-2 on Covers).
The closer games are where Duke has cost its backers money. Favored by less than 15 at home, Duke went 28-32 against the spread. Favored by less than 10, it went 13-19 (29-32 and 13-18 on Covers).
Those smaller numbers are mostly ACC games and power-conference visitors, the opponents good enough to stay within a few possessions for 40 minutes. Against an overmatched nonconference team, the margin tends to keep growing as Duke’s bench plays.
ACC games at Cameron have been the weak spot
Conference home games are where the gap between winning and covering is widest. Over the ten seasons, Duke went 82-13 straight up in ACC games at Cameron and 46-49 against the spread. Both archives agree on that record exactly.
Duke finished below .500 against the spread in ACC home games in six of those ten seasons. The average closing line in those games was Duke minus 13.7.
How the market prices Duke on the ACC road
On the road, the market takes about seven points off. Duke’s average closing spread in ACC road games over the decade was minus 6.8, compared with minus 13.7 in league games at home. That discount has been close to fair. Duke went 47-46-2 against the spread in ACC road games on TeamRankings lines (47-47-1 on Covers) while going 61-34 straight up.
| Season | ACC home ATS | ACC road ATS | Avg road spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4-5 | 6-3 | -11.5 |
| 2024-25 | 6-4 | 8-2 | -13.9 |
| 2023-24 | 6-4 | 5-4-1 | -6.2 |
| 2022-23 | 3-7 | 3-7 | -1.5 |
| 2021-22 | 4-6 | 7-3 | -7.5 |
| 2020-21 | 4-5 | 3-6 | -2.5 |
| 2019-20 | 7-3 | 3-7 | -8.8 |
| 2018-19 | 3-6 | 5-4 | -7.2 |
| 2017-18 | 6-3 | 5-4 | -8.6 |
| 2016-17 | 3-6 | 2-6-1 | +0.1 |
The Scheyer years: the road number went up, and Duke kept covering it
In Jon Scheyer’s first season, 2022-23, Duke was barely favored in ACC road games, at minus 1.5 on average, and went 3-7 against the spread. By 2024-25 the average road line was Duke minus 13.9, and Duke went 8-2 against it.
Over the last two seasons combined, Duke went 14-5 against the spread in ACC road games and 10-9 in ACC home games. The version of Duke that beat the number more often was the one playing in other people’s buildings.
At home, Scheyer’s teams are 63-3 straight up and 36-30 against the spread. Coach K’s last six teams went 48-45-3 against the spread at Cameron on TeamRankings lines. The difference between the two eras is small enough to be noise.
The one season played mostly without fans, 2020-21, was Duke’s worst at Cameron in the sample: 8-5 straight up and 4-9 against the spread. Take it out, and Coach K’s last six teams look even closer to Scheyer’s.
Last season is the clearest example of winning without covering. The 2025-26 team went 15-0 at Cameron and 7-8 against the spread there, while going 8-3 against the spread in true road games.
What it means for this season
Two games into 2026-27, Duke is 2-0 at home and 1-1 against the spread. It failed to cover as a 44.5-point favorite against Army and covered as a 40.5-point favorite against Coastal Carolina.
Once ACC play picks up, the closer home spreads arrive. Those are the games where the line has been hardest for Duke to beat, even in seasons when the team rarely lost at Cameron.
None of this predicts a single game. It does say the Cameron premium is already built into the number and that the closer ACC home games have been, the hardest ones to cover. The ACC road schedule has lately been the friendlier spot.
A note on the data: closing lines from TeamRankings and Covers, venues and final scores from Sports-Reference. Seasons run 2016-17 through 2025-26 unless stated. ACC figures are regular-season conference games only.
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